Tag: China

Could Electricity Vehicles be the long-term solution to the rising Fuel prices?

Posted on By Sino Uganda Research Centre

Global fuel prices have once again become a barometer of geopolitical tension post Covid-19 times. In April 2026, the fragile ceasefire negotiations between Iran and the United States of America triggered sharp swings in Brent crude with prices spiking to 12% in a single week after the talks stalled over uranium enrichment limits. Despite the shale output, USA felt the shock immediately yet it still imports about 6.3 million barrels per day. American gasoline now averages at $4.28 per gallon in the last quarter with a notable increase of 18%. The Energy Department largely attributes this to external conflicts translating into pump prices as a result of disruptions into the supply chains. The Strait of Hormuz avails nearly 22% of the global oil transits thus every ceasefire rumor or event becomes a tax on commuters from Texas. The question facing policymakers is nolonger whether oil is volatile but rather whether dependence on it is sustainable.

China over the past five years has offered a contrasting data point in response to this volatility. In 2021, President Xi stated that energy security must be rooted in self-reliance with new energy as the mainstay and this has since been matched with Capital Investments. Currently Beijing treats electrification as not only climate policy but also as an economic insulation. In 2025 alone, China installed 230 GW of solar and wind capacity more than the rest of the world combined. The State Grid Corporation now reports that EVs now account for 44% of all new car sales supported by 8.6 million public charging points nationwide to enhance service delivery. Nowonder, an average Chinese driver pays the equivalent of $1.10 per gallon when charging at home during off-peak hours compared to $4.60 for gasoline in Shanghai. The 14th five-year plan allocated $180 billion to grid upgrades and battery supply chains. This is part of a dual circulation strategy to link decoupling from imported oil that covers 70% of China’s crude needs to clean energy with a clearly stated goal that electricity becomes the default energy carrier for transport by 2035.

Uganda on the otherhand is sitting at the sharp end of this global equation. We being landlocked country, this shock hits us twofold; firstly at the port in Mombasa and then through domestic transport markups. In April 2026 following the Iran ceasefire turbulence, petrol across the 7 cities hit Ugx 6,300 per litre. This represents a 30% increase from July 2025. For a boda boda rider covering 80km daily, fuel now consumes over 50% of gross incomes unmatched to the competition of electric bikes that are starting to flood the cities.

Uganda’s overlooked advantage of electricity could be the life jacket in this titanic. With the commissioning of Karuma, installed capacity stretched to 2,048 MW against peak demand of 1,100 MW. Additionally, the regulator continues to report a surplus of nearly 40% during night hours when vehicle charging would mostly occur. Uedcl’s domestic tariff of Ugx 756 per kWh when converted, an electric bike covering 80km would use roughly 3.2 kWh costing Ugx 2,570 versus Ugx 6,300 for petrol at current efficiency. This is a 60% operating saving before maintenance differences are counted.

The policy parallel with China is not about scale but rather sequencing. President Xi’s model pairs generation, grid and demand. Uganda’s Energy transition plan targets 52, 000 MW of capacity and clean cooking but transport is the missing link. Kiira Motors and Zembo report electric bodas cut fuel by Ugx 18k daily and require one-tenth the maintenance of combustion engines. If 50k of Kampala’s estimated 120k bodas shifted, the city would offset 46 million litres of petrol annually translating to $38 million in forex savings at today’s prices. The global lesson from the Iran-USA standoff is that price sovereignty matters. China is buying it with solar panels and batteries. Uganda can buy it with hydro at night.

Challenges remain and must not be undertstated. Upfront costs for EVs are still 1.8x higher than petrol equivalents, charge infrastructure outside Kampala is sparse and Uedcl’s reliability in rural areas needs a robust investment. But the fuel price trajectory makes the math shift yearly. The ministry of Energy’s own modeling shows that at Ugx 6,300 per litre, total cost of ownership for an electric boda reaches parity within 15 months. If global oil crosses $110 per barrel again which is a real risk if Iran negotiations collapse, parity drops to 9 months

Electricity will not replace oil overnight, and Uganda will still need petroleum for heavy transport, aviation, and industry for decades. Yet the strategic case is clear: every kilowatt-hour generated at Karuma is a barrel Uganda does not have to import through a chokepoint it cannot control. From Washington to Beijing to Kampala, the 2026 fuel shock is teaching the same lesson. Countries that generate their own energy for transport gain price stability that diplomacy cannot guarantee. For Uganda, with surplus hydro, a young EV fleet, and fuel prices now directly tied to Middle East ceasefire talks, electricity is not just cleaner. It is becoming the cheaper, more sovereign option. The Long-term solution to pump price pain may well come through a socket, not a pipeline.

 

The writer, Arthur Atuha is a research fellow at the Development Watch Centre.

On China’s Lunar Ambitions

Posted on By Nnanda Kizito Sseruwagi

As I write this, one country is leading the world in application of robotics, not just on earth, but also on the moon. China’s robots are currently scrubbing the surface of the moon, harvesting and returning materials of scientific experiments. China is still the only nation to have performed robotic rendezvous and docking at the Moon.

In 2025, China’s Long March 5 rocket launched the world’s first spacecraft capable of retrieving samples from the far side of the moon. The Chang’e 6 spacecraft is revolutionary. Not only is it beneficial to China alone, but to other countries and collectively, for the survival of human consciousness. On its May 2025 mission, Chang’e 6 deployed Pakistan’s iCube-Q orbiter, which carries two optical cameras and a magnetometer designed to detect potential signs of water ice on the Moon’s poles.

The engineering excellence that makes Chang’e 6 possible is as mind-blowing as the engineering used in other lunar landers. To safely land on the moon, it uses a combination of technologies including; a variable thrust engine, optical imagery, onboard maps, hover phases to detect hazards, and shock-absorbing crush-core legs for the final freefall. It also uses a laser-based LiDAR sensor to map the local landing area in 3D before the final landing phase.

The accomplishments of Chang’e 6 from the 2025 mission are already registered. It collected up to 2 kg of soil and rock samples using a drill and a movable surface scoop, and deployed context-providing instruments including cameras, a ground-penetrating radar, and a mineral spectrometer. It then used its arm to move the samples to a sealed container, deployed a small 5 kg rover to photograph the landing area, and launched the samples to lunar orbit as part of an ascent module, which autonomously determined its position and orientation with aid from the Queqiao-2 communications relay lunar orbiter, then docked with the Chang’e 6 orbiter.

The samples were later transferred to the Earth return capsule, which safely descended and landed in China’s northern Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. The successful execution of this complex mission raises hopes for the capabilities of China to eventually land humans on the Moon in the next few years.

Perhaps the most useful achievement from this mission is the in the study of volcanic activity on the moon’s far side, which is necessary in the wider understanding of the evolution of not just the moon but our solar system too.

The mission also led to the very first, and successful detection of negatively charged particles on the Moon’s far side. Experts explain that particles are produced when highly energetic solar wind particles slam the Moon’s surface and kick up secondary particles.

It is also inspiring that the instruments that made that detection belonged to European parties under NILS who collaborated with China on the mission, marking Europe’s first such collaboration with China. Lunar exploration is as such a uniting adventure, and we should work to keep it that way, for the long-term unity of humanity.

The China National Space Administration (CNSA) has also hinted on further collaborations with other world countries on space missions with the upcoming Chang’e 7 this year.  The orbiter is planned to carry a hyperspectral mineral mapping camera made by Egypt and Bahrain, a 3 kg instrument duo from Thailand to study solar storms and cosmic rays, and a Swiss AED radiation monitor to measure incoming and outgoing radiation to and from Earth. This will also be Egypt, Bahrain, and Thailand’s first missions to study of the Moon. The lander will carry a Russian lunar dust and plasma analyzer, a telescope from the International Lunar Observatory Association, and another retroreflector from Italy-based SCF Lab.

According to China’s plans, after Chang’e 7 helps scientists get a tactile sense of the true nature and accessibility of water ice deposits on the Moon’s south pole, it will launch Chang’e 8 in 2028, comprising a lander, a rover, and an operations robot, to collectively explore the local geology and environment with 14 instruments. The CNSA also aims to test technologies most relevant to sending crew to the Moon at the end of the decade using the Chang’e 8 mission.

China’s crewed Moon landing plan involves building a giant new rocket called Long March 10, capable of sending 27,000 kg of payload on a trajectory to the Moon, tripling China’s current best capacity from the Long March 5, from which the 10 is derived.

Following China’s first crewed Moon landing, estimated to happen in 2030, the country will focus on building the surface phase of the ILRS by 2035. Key to realizing this is a new super-heavy lift and eventually reusable rocket called the Long March 9. The rocket can put 50,000 kg of spacecraft hardware on a Moon-ward trajectory. Once the Long March 9 is operational, China intends to use it to deliver large amounts of cargo — and possibly even more crew — to the ILRS Moonbase. The rocket will deliver critical infrastructure via missions named ILRS 1 through 5, including infrastructure for energy, communications, transportation services (landers, rovers, hoppers, and ascent vehicles), scientific research equipment, and more.

Senior Research Fellow, Development Watch Center

China’s Meritocratic System Challenges Western Monopoly on Political Legitimacy

Posted on By Nnanda Kizito Sseruwagi

In the global governance discourse, Western epistemological colonisation has led us to believe, unquestioningly, that electoral democracy is the only process through which a political system can gain legitimacy. I disagree. China is one country whose political leadership challenges the applicability of democracy in a universal fashion, as an obvious truism. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is uniquely adaptive to Chinese realities, and derives its credibility and legitimacy among the over a billion citizens through a political model engineered around meritocracy. China stands as the most meritocratic political system in the world, but we never hear about this, because, well, according to the Western media we consume, the CCP is an authoritarian regime without electoral democracy.

Western universalist narratives assume that the kind of political evolution that must occur in any given society must follow a linear progression, whereby adult individuals, upon attaining the age of universal suffrage, can rationally vote and bring about good governance, which would ultimately guarantee prosperity for their nations.

If the foregoing assumptions were correct, there would be no way China would have lifted 650 million people out of poverty in three decades without implementing all the stated prerequisites of progress, i.e., holding regular multi-party elections, and practising other democratic rituals in the form of Western democratic experience. If anything, China disproves the Western narrative that it has a rigid system incapable of accommodating complex social change, is morally illegitimate and politically closed.

Across various CCP leaderships since the founding of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), China has exhibited a very agile political system, accommodating often disparate policies from Mao Zedong’s radical collectivisation, to the pragmatic market reforms overseen by Deng Xiaoping, and the formal institution of private business people into the ranks of the party by Jiang Zemin. These smooth transitions in the CCP across decades speak to the adaptability of the party as opposed to its rigidity. It is a system that functions flexibly, contrary to the dysfunction that Western narratives predict from it.

China also has the most meritocratic political system in the world. Popularly known as “the largest human resources department in the world”, the Central Organisation Department (COD) of the Communist Party is a pillar of CCP power. It plays a key role in maintaining the integrity of China’s governing system and helps the CCP rule by controlling the nation’s vital human resources. The COD manages the appointments and assignments of 5,000 provincial ministerial-level officials to various positions in the government, business firms, non-profit and other types of organisations. It also compiles detailed, confidential reports on potential leaders of the Party. It not only matches talents with positions as in ordinary human resource functions, but also ensures the loyalty of appointees to the Party, safeguards the integrity of the cadre corps, and runs programmes of cadre grooming and training. It is the COD’s job to see that the cadre corps is always in good shape in terms of age structure, education level, the right mix of expertise and work experiences, among other factors. The COD is notorious for stress-testing promising officials by rotating them through jobs in diverse parts of the country and in different administrative units, before hauling them back to Beijing if they pass the test. The current president of China, Xi Jinping, had served in various positions in five provinces, from county level to provincial party secretary for four decades before becoming president. No Western government comes even distantly close to this level of meticulousness in selecting competent leaders.

Whereas it is often the claim of Western critics that China’s government is illegitimate because it is not regularly subjected to democratic elections, as is signature practice in the West, an observation of the Chinese public opinion on this says the opposite. According to research conducted by the Ash Center and published by Havard University, which provided a long-term view of how Chinese citizens view their government at the national, regional and local levels, the survey team found that compared to public opinion patterns in the U.S., in China there was very high satisfaction with the central government. The survey established that 95.5 per cent of respondents were either “relatively satisfied” or “highly satisfied” with Beijing, compared to findings by Gallup on American citizens, where only 38 per cent of respondents were satisfied with the federal government. What does this say about legitimacy? Should the legitimacy of a government be judged based on holding an election or voter/citizen satisfaction with the political order?

My goal here is not to say that China’s system is without its flaws. The CCP faces significant challenges. Corruption is still a big problem, just like in most countries. However, we must be cognisant of the peculiar cultural and historical contexts in which nations operate. We are not walking the same, linear journey. Western nations should not impose their journey on us. We are walking in different footsteps. China recognises this and never seeks to impose or export its model. Our shared future as humanity will be more stable when we follow plurality, not universalism.

The writer is a senior research fellow at the Development Watch Center.

Spain’s PM China Trip: A Cobweb of Politics and Geopolitical Re-alignment

Posted on By Joshua Kingdom

On Sunday April 12th, Spain’s Prime Minister (PM) Pedro Sánchez landed in China for a five days state visit making him the sixth European statesman to do so between December 2025 and April 2026. The leaders coming before him were; Emmanuel Macron of France, Keir Starmer of the United Kingdom (UK), Friedrich Merz of Germany, Petteri Orpo of Finland, and Taoiseach Micheal Martin of the Republic of Ireland. In January, Mark Carney also headed a high level Canadian delegation to China.

In part then, PM Sánchez’s mission can be understood as falling in the emerging trend of European Union (EU) member states opting to collaborate more with Beijing in a bid to hedge themselves against the increased unpredictability in Washington following the re-entry of President Trump on the international political scene. Stopping at that however, would be to miss the most important aspect of Sino-Madrid relations in recent years.

In order to have a better grasp of the dynamics at play, one has to go back to 2023 starting from which, the Spanish Socialist Workers Party’s Secretary General has put it upon himself to embark on an annual diplomatic sojourn to China. This places him in a category of his own. What is even more fascinating is that King Felipe VI and Queen Letizia travelled to the Asian nation too towards the end of last year.

Looking at things from this perspective, the capacities that PM Sánchez’s relationship with Secretary Xi Jinping has brought about overtime become a point of inspiration for other heads of states (both within Europe and outside of it) who are only awakening to the current moment in geopolitics now about the opportunities that become available to harness once a country establishes strong ties with  China. A concrete example in this regard is trade between China and Spain which increased by almost 10% in 2025 alone (the final figure stood at $55 billion). Specifically for Madrid, her exports under this bilateral framework grew by 7%.

By working more closely, the two parties have been able to set in place conditions that facilitated the realization of each other’s comparative advantage. In 2024 hence, Prime Minister Sánchez alongside Prime Minister Li Qiang entered agreements on green development, science research, education, culture etc. Two years down the road, Chinese manufacturer Chery announced that it would be setting up a plant targeting to serve the European continent at large in Barcelona.

The Chinese and Spanish political establishments have also been able to provide an alternative model to interstate relations which though cognizant of the fact that national interests can never be aligned across the board, is at the same time sophisticated enough to bypass the same to emphasize areas of common ground. The reigning President of Socialist International addressed this phenomenon in a speech delivered at Tsinghua University during the 2026 official visit saying that; “A multipolar world is not an assumption or an ideal, but a new reality. We cannot change it; we can only deny it or embrace it.”

Unfortunately, when Spain has exemplified this spirit more broadly, her efforts have been treated with contempt. Having denied the United States of America access to the Morón and Rotafor military bases for instance (cautioning instead that “you cannot answer one illegality with another, because that is how the great catastrophes of humanity begin”), the country’s 47th President responded with threats of imposing a full trade embargo on the EU state. The good news is that Donald Trump has not treated less vocal parties kindly either a move that has tested their patience significantly such that as it stands, UK and Paris have both made public the fact that they will not partake in the Strait of Hormuz blockade that America recently announced.

From here, it is not difficult to see them seek to consolidate their cooperation with Beijing given what Spain has managed to achieve by doing so. When he met with President Xi thus, Pedro Sánchez made no secret of the fact that he thought that it was necessary that the China takes a more proactive role in geopolitics and that if the party, it would have the full support of his government.

The writer is a Lawyer and Research Fellow at the Development Watch Centre

 

China’s Playbook for Global Industrial Dominance

Posted on By Nnanda Kizito Sseruwagi

China’s Qinghai Province hosts the world’s largest solar power plant, Gonghe Talatan Solar Park. Experts claim that at full capacity, it can power a country such as Norway. Sprawling across China’s deserts is not just sand but also vast solar and wind projects. Both the world’s largest solar plants and wind farms are all located in China.

China invests an average of $940 billion in clean energy technology per year. In comparison, China invests almost as much in renewable energy as the rest of the world invests in fossil fuels. The benefits of China’s investments will, in the short and long term, not only benefit the country but also fundamentally transform the global economy. We are increasingly entering an era where Chinese domestic policy is effectively global policy.

When Chairman Mao died in 1976, he was succeeded by one of the most transformational leaders of the 20th century, Deng Xiaoping. Upon assuming power, Deng saw the need for profound economic reform through market pragmatism. Under the slogan “Reform and opening up”, Deng began a process of gradual economic liberalisation throughout the 80s. As his reforms took hold in the 90s, China’s economic growth started quintupling, stimulated by surging exports from Chinese factories to foreign markets. China also started testing out the opening up of domestic markets to foreign direct investments through special economic zones.

As recently as 1995, China’s GDP per capita was just over $600, much lower than South Korea’s, which was at more than 12,000 and Japan’s at 44,000.

At the dawn of the 21st Century, China’s rapid economic rise continued to soar under the leadership of Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao. A defining moment in modern economic history was in 2001, when China joined the World Trade Organisation. It was defining because it opened up access for Chinese goods to global markets. Experts observe that China’s GDP per capita surged by another fivefold in the ten years following its accession to the WTO, and merchandise exports jumped to account for around 60% of GDP by 2007 as a result of the economic liberalisation along international principles.

This was the commencement of an age where more affordable Chinese goods started saturating foreign markets, and China started to build up large trade surpluses with most of the world’s previously leading exporters. By 2010, China had overtaken Japan as the world’s second-largest economy. Nevertheless, China’s export economy remained largely focused on lower-end, labour-intensive manufacturing.

President Xi Jinping came to power in 2012, and three years later, in 2015, announced a new economic strategy: “Made in China 2025.” It was a blueprint for the next stage of China’s economic development. It outlined the weaknesses of China’s economy and set out goals to eliminate them. It said that China’s manufacturing industry was large but not strong, lacked innovation, and was dependent on foreign countries for core technologies and high-end equipment.

The strategy was a clear directive for the state to back key modern industries that had begun emerging in the early 2010s, on which the country’s future as a manufacturing powerhouse depended. These included robotics, aerospace, biotech, electric vehicles, and renewable energy technology.

Is it still surprising that by 2026, China will be the global leader in the clean energy supply chain?

It the recent years, China installs on average 244GW of new solar and wind energy capacity. Chinese green technology companies are the most cost-effective and innovative you can find in the world. Chinese EV brands are rapidly becoming the largest automakers in the world. China accounts for 80% of global solar panel production capacity. It represents 60% of global wind turbine production and up to 90% of global lithium battery production. If there is an industrial race of our time, China is winning it. Chinese technology companies are likely to be competing against themselves in the near future.

It’s not like how Chinese companies became so competitive is a secret for the rest of our countries to borrow a leaf from. The Chinese government provides them with tax incentives and credits to help them grow and operate, and to enable their R&D. Sometimes, it provides them with cheap land and manages the prices of other input costs like electricity. The largest way, perhaps, it supports these companies is by offering cheap loans. However, that is only possible because China has a highly centralised banking sector, with state-owned banks owning 60% of all assets in the sector. This implies they can lend extensively to help favoured industries grow, calculated not by risk and return, but by the government’s own priorities.

Ugandan factories and industries need the same support; unfortunately, most banks in Uganda are commercially owned by multinational capital, whose interest is in profit repatriation, not long-term development of our country. Ugandan companies cannot operate and produce more cheaply without state subsidies and banking support. They need to have lower rent costs, lower tax burden, lower borrowing costs, and subsidised demand in our domestic market.

The writer is a senior research fellow at the Development Watch Center.

Merz’s High-Stakes China Balancing Act

Posted on By Nnanda Kizito Sseruwagi

In February this year, the German Chancellor Friedrich Merz arrived in China. This was his first visit there since taking office, and he’s the latest Western leader seeking to reset ties with Beijing. The trip came amid warnings from German industry of growing competition from China. It is clear that both countries now want to pursue increasingly practical cooperation.

Any curious observer of China knows that the country is currently celebrating the year of the horse. It is therefore symbolically significant for Germany that the first high-profile visitor to Beijing during this highly auspicious lunar year has been their Chancellor.

One of the difficult asks Merz had for President Xi Jinping was that China should encourage Russia, its key ally, to end the war in Ukraine. But that will be a topic for another piece. For this trip, the primary focus for Germany was on seeking closer cooperation with Beijing as a hedge against rising global trade protectionism and tariffs.

Ahead of his journey to the Land of the Dragon, Merz remarked thus: “Foreign policy and economic policy belong together just as much as defence policy and domestic policy. We can no longer separate them today. That’s why I’ll be travelling to China to discuss future cooperation between Europe and Germany on the one side and China on the other…”

Remember, Merz is the latest leader to trip his way to China, seeking to stabilise economic ties and navigate geopolitical shifts. Countries which in the past had blocked China during its trade dispute are now impatiently knocking at the Middle Kingdom’s door, all keen to strike business deals. The British, Canadian, and South Korean leaders have all visited Beijing this year, yet we have not even moved half of the year!

Firstly, it is obvious, even common sensical that Merz should tread carefully not to cause a rift with Washington over China. President Trump recently threatened 100% tariffs on Canada for holding trade talks with Beijing. Germany will be aiming to strengthen ties without triggering a similar retaliation from the US.

Secondly, there is apparent domestic pressure for Merz, too. Over the past year, German politicians and business groups have increasingly warned about intensifying industrial competition with China and the risk of a new China shock. Even European/Western experts have spoken out and recognise that China has become a sophisticated manufacturer and is advancing rapidly in key technologies, a growing challenge for Germany’s export-driven economy. Last year, China sold a trillion dollars more overseas than it imported. Germany’s economy is highly export-driven, but exports to China fell more than 9% in 2025. Overall, car exports to China have dropped by a staggering 2/3 since 2022.

The other concern on Merz’s hands is that he needs to balance the need to protect vulnerable German industries from cheap Chinese goods while repairing strained ties. This would be a defining challenge for him. German automakers are already feeling the pinch from Chinese competition, since China is now the global leader in EVs, and a distant number one for that matter. This is something that Merz has to navigate along with the whole question of where rare earths will come from in the future, as China becomes more and more restrictive and is very open that it wants to use this as a political instrument as well. The other key challenge on Merz’s table is the pressure from the United States. America, of course, wants to see its European partners take a tough line on the Chinese government and particularly on their trade deficit.

Therefore, whereas Merz may want to have a stable, prosperous relationship with China, the foregoing issues I have highlighted are real concerns for him to deal with. The reality of the time is that Germany is exporting less to China. German brands in China have less of a market share, and Chinese brands are increasingly competing with Germany in third countries around the world. Merz travelled with several European manufacturers on this trip, and they all had/have serious concerns that this is costing jobs in Germany. The business people are definitely critical of what they may find to be unfair practices by China, such as things like government subsidies, although basic knowledge of economic history would reveal that this is the same process by which Western industries accumulated significant growth and came to dominate the global market.

For President Xi Jinping, it must be a very great experience hosting yet another powerful Western leader. Xi has effortlessly been positioned by Western leaders themselves as a stable partner compared to the US, whose leader, Donald Trump, seems to be as fragile to rely on as the weather.

These events have also added to the image of China as the true leader of the new multipolar world order. And since Germany and Europe in general are important markets for China, Xi must be glad to welcome more European leaders to China to strike trade deals. This is even more urgent now, when the Chinese economy’s domestic demand has been slowing down. China, therefore, needs to rely increasingly on the export market.

We should remember that the relationship between Germany and China has really flipped over the years. It had been the case that Germany was a big exporter to China, with China having to rely significantly on German machinery and German expertise. However, in recent years, China has become the one exporting a lot to Germany. There is a lot of dependency on Chinese manufacturing for the German economy to survive. Nevertheless, China still relies heavily on German imports for materials and other chemicals and manufacturing, although Germany is the most dependent of the two countries.

The writer is a senior research fellow – Development Watch Center.

 

China’s Bid for Global Leadership

Posted on By Nnanda Kizito Sseruwagi

The level of Chinese modernization is going to be the defining marvel of our time, if isn’t already. China has made great strides in economic strength, and in advancing scientific and technological capabilities.

The country has demonstrated an ability to sustain and consolidate progress in several measures. It has increased gross domestic product (GDP) to 134.9 trillion yuan, which averages a year-on-year increase of 5 percent. China continues to contribute about 30 percent to global economic growth. China consistently creates a total of 12 million urban jobs annually, and surveys of urban unemployment rates estimates it at just about 5.1 percent.

Almost every year that comes, China’s foreign trade strikes a record high, and the global market share of China’s exports continues to increase. Last year, China’s foreign exchange reserves surpassed 3.2 trillion US dollars.

The country has registered steady progress in the wellbeing of its people. As you read this, the per capita disposable income of China has grown by 5.1 percent in real terms. Whatever achievements the state registers in poverty alleviation are further consolidated and expanded. There is now greater support rendered to compulsory education, basic old-age insurance, basic medical insurance, and social assistance in China.

In the field of industrial output and new advancements, China has continued to dominate. It has registered grain output at a new record high of 700 million metric tons, with the yield per hectare rising by 75.75 kilograms. The value added of high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing has appreciated by 8.9 percent and 7.7 percent respectively, and the output of new-energy vehicles passed the 13 million mark. China has recorded an increase in the value added in the sectors of information transmission, software, and IT services by 10.9 percent and by 10.4 percent in leasing and business services.

The enhancements made in innovation capacity in China are peerless. The country has recorded new achievements in integrated circuits, artificial intelligence (AI), quantum technology, and other areas. One of the recent highlights of Chinese technological superiority was when the Chang’e-6 mission completed humanity’s first-ever sample collection from the far side of the moon, and the delivery and commission of the Mengxiang ocean drilling vessel. The total value of China’s technology contract transactions increased by 11.2 percent.

China is also making new breakthroughs in reform and opening up. It has completed the reform of government institutions across the board, adopted major reform measures for building a unified national market, and gradually raised the statutory retirement age.

China has lifted all market access restrictions on foreign investment in the manufacturing sector, while also further expanding and upgrading investment cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative.

At the beginning of March 2026, China published its 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) in which it invited the world to share prosperity. The plan shows China to be a stable anchor for the world economy and a reliable partner in addressing common challenges. As the beacon of modernization, and with a population of 1.4 billion people, China’s posture now is of a reliable and stable partner to both advanced and developing countries alike, marking it out as the bearer of the torch to an alternative path in a growingly turbulent world.

China is likely going to create a new demand for international talent, technology, and partnerships through its massive investments in artificial intelligence, quantum computing, smart economy, and advanced manufacturing. China is no longer merely the leading producer of EVs, but now promises to be the world leader in green transport in general.

The country’s Transport Ministry has unveiled plans to promote the digital and green transition of its transport sector during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. It will facilitate the development of zero-carbon transport corridors and stations as part of efforts to boost low-carbon development of the transport sector.

Domestically, China is also keen on addressing unbalanced and inadequate development, to expand the middle-income group and broaden access to basic public services across its population. Common prosperity in China is not what the West portrays it to be in negative frames of egalitarianism or a redistribution-first model that suppresses market incentives. China’s common prosperity follows a dual-track strategy — expanding the economic “pie” while improving its distribution, so that growth gains are shared more broadly.

The writer is a senior research fellow | Development Watch Center.

China’s Two Sessions: the Centrality of China-Africa Green Cooperation and Why It Matters

Posted on By Musiime George

Each spring, the ‘two sessions;’ China’s biggest political assembly brings together the National People’s Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) to deliberate on the nation’s broad policy direction for the new year. This year’s two sessions ran from March 04-12, bringing together members of the Chinese Communist Party (CPC) and representatives from all political parties, industry leaders, academia and prominent figures in Chinese society.

Noteworthy is that, this year’s two sessions came in under five months of the 2025 plenary session and a new 5th five-year plan—that specially stands out for its extraordinary emphasis on high quality development. While it’s anchored on a spectrum of guiding principles, the 15th five-year plan lays special emphasis on the need to accelerate the green transition in all areas of economic and social development. This transition is viewed as a critical element in China’s modernization, building a beautiful China, but also as an inroad to a community with a shared future for humanity.

Incidentally, the 2026 two sessions also fall in the 70th-year of China-Africa friendship. To mark this milestone, both sides are now more than ever focused on the shared aspiration of building an all-weather China-Africa community with a shared future in the new era. This, against a backdrop of unprecedented risks – on the list of which is climate change.

It’s an undeniable fact that climate change threatens livelihoods and sometimes entire national economies across Africa, the global south and indeed the wider world. Depending on where one is, these risks can range from food and water insecurity, disruptions to production and ecological systems, health hazards associated with erratic weather patterns, among others all of which undoubtedly have a bearing on the quality of development.

In the face of such uncertainty, Africa often looks to its friendship with China, China’s experience, technical expertise, high-quality manufacturing capability and record of rapid modernization for inspiration. Moreover, there is great hope that deliberations at the two sessions could reinforce the imperative for further strengthening and directing this partnership towards bolstering Africa’s climate readiness and resilience.

For Africa, climate change is one of the greatest challenges to development yet, the continent’s limited development is a double-edged sword which; besides exposing the continent to severe adversity, also makes it ill-prepared to deal with risks posed by climate change.

Despite being responsible for less than 4 percent of the world’s climate problem, the African Development Bank estimates that Africa loses 3-5 percent of its annual GDP to climate related events. This situation is further made worse by an annual climate financing gap of $227 million. These circumstances create the imperative for a blend of strong partnerships, innovation and practical financing solutions to guarantee climate resilience while fueling the desired growth.

Historically, energy shortages have been one of Africa’s greatest growth-bottlenecks yet, relying entirely on traditional energy sources to close this gap wouldn’t be without substantial environmental consequences. Therefore, in a world where geopolitical and geo-economic competition are placed ahead of a looming climate catastrophe, China-Africa green cooperation is a model for effective climate response. China’s green cooperation framework is a positive development not just for both sides but the world for a number of reasons. First, in addition to the two sides being home to approximately 36-percent of global population, Africa holds about 60 percent of the world’s solar resources which are grossly untapped. Meanwhile, what China lacks in green resources it makes up for in expertise in green development, innovations, clean energy, and competitive manufacturing. This matrix makes the China-Africa green cooperation a partnership of high-potency in the world’s green transition, promising steady progression towards a sustainable energy mix, at least for two of the world’s most populous regions.

To this, China adds ambition, pragmatism and more importantly, structuring cooperation around Africa’s articulated needs, but also global goals in greening the planet. For instance, China’s green cooperation with Africa is highly practical; going beyond policy statements and creating impact on the ground. As a result, cooperation projects can be found all across Africa; from the Noor solar complex in Morocco to the De Aar wind farm in South Africa; together powering upwards of one million households and keeping tons of CO2 out of the atmosphere annually. In East Africa, projects like the Karuma Dam in Uganda, Gibe III dam in Ethiopia and the Garissa solar power plant in Kenya equally have similar benefits.

Away from infrastructure projects, significant progress is visible in areas of capacity building, knowledge and experience sharing aimed at greening the continent. In this regard, there’s no better example than the China-Africa environmental cooperation center (CAECC) established in 2020 under the [Great Green Wall] initiative.  This initiative besides being a hub for sharing knowledge and experience is an avenue for conducting joint research on combating desertification on the continent. The great green wall has played a key in reinforcing the “frontline defense” in Nigeria’s Kano state – a local effort in containing the expansion of the Sahara Desert southwards not to mention its role in carbon sequestration. The great green wall initiative has been influential in reclaiming tens of millions of hectares of land in a region that was previously losing more than 30 hectares to desertification annually.

But the China-Africa green cooperation isn’t a new or an anticipated outcome of the 2026 two sessions because it has been ongoing and growing through time. Even before the United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP) backed CAECC, the Forum on China-Africa cooperation FoCAC framework had produced the Sharm El Sheik, Beijing, and Addis-Ababa Action Plans, setting the tone for ecological cooperation and sustainable development before 2016. The CAECC has incrementally been given agency through FoCAC where both sides have adopted several Action Plans namely; the Johannesburg Action Plan in 2016-2018, Beijing Action Plan 2019-2021, and Dakar Action Plan 2022-2024. Indeed, besides the series of action plans, the 8 major initiatives and 9 programs during the 2018 FoCAC summit in Beijing also stressed Green transition as a significant pillar of China’s relationship with the continent.

China continues to demonstrate its commitment to working with Africa to tackle its challenges by sharing experiences for accelerated growth through infrastructure and capacity building, human capital training and supporting Africa’s industrialization. Its policy on cooperation with Africa addresses both sustainability and the continent’s articulated aspirations, such as market access and industrialization, as evidenced by President Xi Jinping’s three measures announced at the 2023 BRICS summit in South Africa. Uganda for instance, is working on cooperation arrangements with Cherry automobiles, CHTC, and Zhongtong in the area of electric vehicles (EVs) while Egypt’s Suez Economic Zone with its five solar production establishments is emerging as a solar manufacturing hub on the continent.

As China-Africa green cooperation expands in the era of high quality development, we can expect climate conscious industrialization and green manufacturing to grow simultaneously with economic zones and industrial parks. This will most certainly bring with it — more green industrialization, green jobs for the continent’s youthful population, while ensuring a sustainable path to growth and modernization across the continent.

The writer is a research fellow at the Development Watch Centre

Strategic Alignment for Prosperity: How to Deepen China-Uganda Ties in the 15th Five-Year Plan Era

Posted on By Joshua Kingdom

On March 17th 2025, the Development Watch Centre (DWC) in partnership with her sister organizations (Sino-Uganda Research Centre, Centre for Contemporary China-Africa Studies, and Centre for BRICS Studies Uganda) hosted a half-day symposium at Fairway Hotel in Kampala that analysed the implications of the newly adopted 15th Five-Year Plan for Uganda hence the theme “Strategic Alignment for Prosperity: Deepening China-Uganda Ties in the 15th Five-Year Plan Era.”

Appreciating how immense China’s contribution towards Africa’s development in the last couple of decades has been, and strongly believing that this fact is not about to change, the underlying thread to most of what was said at the event tied things back to what the Communist Party of China’s (CPC) 2026-2030 policy framework means for Uganda― particularly as it relates to the country’s fourth National Development Plan (NDP IV).

In his address therefore, H.E FAN Xuecheng the Chargé d’affaires at the Embassy of the People’s Republic of China in Uganda assured Kampala as well as other African countries that his homeland viewed their prosperity as integral to the welfare of her domestic economy. The Diplomat went on to explain that as such, Beijing would continue to position her strengths in trade, green energy, science and technology etc. in ways that best set the ground for their development.

The Day’s Guest of Honour, the Managing Director of Uganda Broadcasting Corporation (UBC), Mr David Winston Agaba concurred citing that China’s cooperation with Africa is further bolstered by history given that the Asian super power has always been cordial in her involvements with the continent going as far back as the dispensation of colonialism in which the attitude of western countries was to openly rampage and pillage Africa. The UBC manager then went on to express enthusiasm for DWC’s work saying that it was vital that researchers continue to actively engage with the most pressing issues of our times.

Coming prior to the speeches of the two dignitaries, DWC’s Executive Director Dr Allawi Ssemanda spoke about the unfortunate state of foreign relations that Uganda finds itself in decrying how possible it can be that our leadership has been boxed into partnerships that expressly couch their terms in language that points to the nations on the other side of things as the masters on whom Kampala is at their mercies. In contrast, the academic asserted that China’s win-win model whose spirit guides the 15th five-year plan was far much better all things considered.

Two guests joined the conversation virtually. First is Prof Timothy Kerswell, Distinguished Research Fellow at DWC who laid the ground for the day’s topics. Addressing the conference from Australia, he explained that the Two Sessions was the most important function on China’s political calendar emphasizing that this year’s National People’s Congress and National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference meetings were even more so because they drew Beijing’s governance road map for the next five years.

Dr Vuyo Mjimba the Chief Research Specialist in the Human Sciences Research Council’s Africa Institute of South Africa is the other having made his presentation live from Johannesburg via zoom. Among other things, the South African scholar intimated that it was high time to view research and policy as inseparable cautioning that a lot of the dilemmas that plague Africa had something to do with the fact that very little attention was given to collecting and disseminating critical data. He then pointed out that given China’s track record of respecting Africa’s priorities, African Union member states can seek to synchronize their synergies with her through sectors where they have the comparative advantage e.g. minerals and natural resources.

The symposium closed with two panel sessions starting with one constituted by Hon. Simon Mulongo an international relations consultant together with Counsel Ssemambo Rashid of Ssemambo and Ssemambo Advocates. The latter centred his presentation on the Global Governance Initiative expressing admiration for the reforms that China has been trying to push thereunder not least, the proposal to reimagine the United Nations’ position. The Advocate posited that Beijing’s example was a breath of fresh air for the developing world especially if one looks at the prevailing attitude of other global powers. To illustrate his point, he quoted President’s Trump’s latest remarks on Cuba (i.e. “Taking Cuba, I mean, whether I free it, take it. I could do anything I want with it.”).

Mr Arthur Atuha’s presentation was the very last. Therein, he shared about the promise that lies in the 15th five-year plan for Ugandan export industry. Understood well, the DWC Research Fellow contended that the prospects of NDP IV could be attuned to harness projections of increased consumption in Beijing for the next half a decade.

There you have it, the overwhelming consensus from the day was that the 15th five-year plan had a lot in it for Uganda and that if the moment is seized by Kampala, a lot of the country’s goals set under NDP IV would be realized come 2030.

 

 

Will China leapfrog itself in the next five-year plan?

Posted on By Sino Uganda Research Centre

Editor’s note: Hussein Askary, a special commentator for CGTN, is the Vice-Chairman of the Belt and Road Institute in Sweden, and a Distinguished Research Fellow in the Guangdong Institute for International Strategies. The article reflects the author’s opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

China’s Premier Li Qiang delivered a government work report (GWR) on Thursday at the fourth session of the 14th National People’s Congress (NPC), in which he outlined what could become history’s largest and most advanced leap in science and technology-driven economic progress and growth in the coming five years.

One of the most extraordinary points Li made, among many interesting ones, is the government’s intention to integrate the best achievements of the past few years in science, technology and innovation with China’s compact industrial system. The government intends to incentivise this process across every sector of the economy to create a consolidated productive force from the many parts of the amazing industrial system China has built so far.

To simplify this transformational process, imagine a football team made of the world’s best goalkeepers, defence players, midfielders and forwards in one team. Then, you train them together in a several-month boot camp to match and integrate their technical qualities with tactical schemes. This is what we may expect to happen to China’s high-quality economic development during the implementation period of the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030).

China has leapfrogged the industrial world in the past decade in many fields of science, technology, engineering and industrial production. Chinese companies, both state-owned and private, have become global top-tier players not only in production capacity and quality but also in innovation. However, while all these sectors might be seen and function as discrete entities acting separately, in the next five years, high-quality development and a new combination of productive forces will make it imperative to integrate them into a single, continuous whole.

This will be the launching pad towards the intermediate goal of “realizing socialist modernization” by 2035 as a stepping stone towards the 2049 Second Centenary Goal of building a “modern socialist country that is prosperous, strong, democratic, culturally advanced, harmonious, and beautiful.”

The above is not a guessing game or speculation, but an assessment based on examining the previous five-year plans of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, especially since Chinese President Xi Jinping presented concepts related to high-quality development for years.

What these five-year plans reveal is an incredible level of consistency, unity of long-term vision and ability to deliver even amidst some of the harshest international and domestic ups and downs. The marriage of “high-quality development” with innovation, represented in the concept of “new quality productive forces,” to pursue the long-term vision is what makes the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan unique.

Workers operating at the track laying construction site of the Wenling-Yuhuan section of Hangzhou-Taizhou high-speed railway in Taizhou, east China’s Zhejiang Province, November 5, 2025. /Xinhua

Premier Li strongly emphasized, in delivering the GWR, that among the major strategic tasks of the government over the next five years, a pivotal one will be “the pursuit of high-quality development,” based on a solid modern industrial system that relies on advanced manufacturing as the backbone for achieving greater self-reliance.

He emphasized that science and technology must deliver advanced innovation and breakthroughs in core technologies. One of the main goals is to nurture new industries and future industries, such as new energy, quantum technology, embodied artificial intelligence (AI), brain-computer interfaces, 6G technology and satellite internet. It’s emphasized that state-owned enterprises must take the lead in technological expansion, especially in the fields of aerospace, aviation, biomedicine, and the low-altitude economy.

However, Li reiterated that these developments would take place within a unified national market and productive chains. In this context, market forces and small- and medium-sized enterprises specializing in sophisticated technologies will be supported by the government to become leaders in future technologies, enabling faster application of technologies such as AI to production processes and services. Even traditional industries and agricultural production will be modernized and upgraded within this consolidated system, with new scientific and technological innovations entering these sectors too.

As Li indicated, the key to this process is to push for full integration between technological and industrial innovation. Efforts will be made to integrate the education system and the public culture of innovation into this technological and industrial unified structure. Talent development centers will be established at the national level, with specialized centers in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hubei region and the Guangdong Greater Bay Area to foster world-class innovation engines. These centers will undertake major national science and technology projects in the coming years.

What we will probably witness is that economic growth and progress will no longer be measured by the gross domestic product, but rather by the number of scientific and technological breakthroughs achieved and incorporated into the productive processes of the economy to make them bankable.

China’s success in planning and implementing such a vision is great news not only for the Chinese people but for the world, where the 15th Five-Year Plan dedicates a special place to the integration of the concept of high-quality development into the Belt and Road Initiative and how common prosperity and joint development can lead to a brighter shared future for mankind. This is extremely important at a time when many nations and regions in the world are gazing down a huge precipice of fear and uncertainty.