Month: January 2025

Improved Technology Is Vital in Answering Uganda and Africa’s Energy  Dilemma

Posted on By Sino Uganda Research Centre

By Arthur Atuha

The World Bank estimates that one billion people – of which a big fraction is in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia – have no access to electricity! Relatedly, the African Development Bank (ADB)  explains that Sub-Saharan Africa cannot realise its development targets with current shortage of electricity stressing that the region needs USD 130-170 billion annually if it is to address its power challenges. Some experts argue that this presents a major barrier to social economic transformation touching major development indicators like health, education, poverty reduction, food production, gender equality, livelihoods among others.

Indeed, President Yoweri Museveni has often explained that “lack of infrastructure such as electricity” can impede development aspirations by among others causing high cost of doing business stating that lack of energy is one of major bottlenecks the continent is grappling with. Uganda’s Vision 2040’s whose aim is “A transformed Ugandan Society from a Peasant to a Modern and Prosperous Country within 30 years” undercores the importance of energy in any country’s social-economic development. The potential demand is seemingly growing with stretches from agriculture, manufacturing and domestic consumption. Digital infrastructure and innovation in the Power sector are meant to foster entrepreneurship but how do we achieve this at the earliest times anyway?

With several sources of power such as Nuclear, thermal, biomass, solar and hydro, supply is ceasing to be a challenge for Uganda’s dream but rather demand triggered in-terms of load growth, electricity access and quality of service mapped against the cost of electricity. The Grid development plan (2018-2040) indicates growth in sales by UETCL of 9% partly due to exportation of electricity to neighboring countries like Kenya. Nonetheless, the demand side in Uganda has continued to portray potential in the next future thus the need to match it to supply.

Global energy targets have also continued to be enforced especially through donations, grants and Foreign Domestic Investments (FDIs) calling for compliance to conditions such as affordable and clean energy which is number 7 priority of United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (SDG 7) and number SDG number 13 – climate action with notable environmental regulations especially those relating to green energy and reduction of carbon emissions for example the use of electric vehicles that are eco-friendly. This has fronted Technology as a feasible solution to solve power issues globally like never before for which Uganda should not be indifferent.

China is already playing a key role especially in supporting energy infrastructure development especially in Africa and the entire global south. China’s Belt and Road initiative (BRI) is one of main vehicles Beijing has been using to fund and support energy infrastructure development including Uganda’s Karuma and Isimba hydropower stations. Also, through Chinese State-Owned firms, Beijing’s role in ensuring global transformation of the power sector is very visible and commendable. China Southern Power Grid (CSG) , a state-owned enterprise that operates in China’s five provinces including Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, Guizhou, and Hainan has demonstrated digital AI plus power systems (Green) in Hainan province with low carbon development at 28% energy usage in China. With these targets of sustainability, renewables are becoming irreplaceable thus the need to attract an interdisciplinary approach of integration.

With demand, system stability is seen to be the biggest challenge however with appropriate planning parameters and investment in climate friendly portfolios and products, these can guarantee reliable and resilient power systems, for example replacing generators and inverters with converters.

Uganda’s electricity problems are largely associated with accessibility, reliability and energy losses some of which are underpinned to vandalism. Investment in digital infrastructure such as drones that have an AI inbuilt mechanism can be used for smart monitoring of both transmission and distribution network lines especially in the highly risk areas like the North-eastern part of Uganda (Karamoja region) that is prone to insecurity thus threatening the safety of staff operators.

The path of investment in Technology has seen CSG become a performance benchmark in China with its power reliability hitting nearly 100%, accessibility stands at 100% with sufficient energy storage to beat outages, cost of power has dropped by 60% in the past decade due to the pricing mechanism that is market established among the 38 OECD countries. This has stimulated economic growth and social benefits including improved competitiveness with China’s scale increasing from 11 trillion yuan in 2012 to over 50 trillion yuan in 2022.  It is imperative to associate such achievements to be driven by market demand, technological innovation and government support.

On 9th December 2024, CSG launched the implementation of a new power system to achieve cleanliness and low carbon emissions of power supply by 2035. This is to have a composition of Wind PV, hydro, nuclear and hydrogen as renewables are becoming a more reliable substitute for fossil fuels. Safety and sufficiency being pre-requisites, development is meant to advance in-tandem to enhance reliability with

They built a back-up power supply coordinating the large power grids to the distributed smart grids guaranteeing a stable electricity system operation. Cost effectiveness and efficiency being key, the electricity tariff will further decline due to the improved electricity market mechanism increasing terminal energy consumption to 42% by 2035. This demonstrates synergy between supply and demand with foundations from flexibility and intelligence thus optimizing source grid integration. If the different energy sector players in Uganda (ERA, UEGCL, UETCL, UEDCL) through the ministry of Energy explored such opportunities of technology advancements, Uganda could become among the first developing countries to witness the benefits of the new power supply system gradually by 2035. With UMEME out, maybe Uganda and Africa in general should  borrow a leaf from China’s CSG. The company has already helped a number of countries such as Vietnam, Chile, Peru, Laos and Luxenberg among others to significantly improve their power supply by significantly reducing power losses in process of distribution among others through use of advanced technology.

The writer is a Research Fellow at the Development watch Centre.

US tariffs on Chinese EVs

Posted on By Sino Uganda Research Centre

By Talwana Ernest

On October 4th, 2024, the European Union, in line with US tariffs on Chinese EVs, voted to place tariffs on the same. This is a growing trend courtesy of the perceived threat of Chinese EVs disrupting Western markets and creating stiff competition with Western manufacturers who lack the production capacity of domestic Chinese car manufacturers.

However, these tariffs are par on course with growing western anxiety towards the behemoth that is Chinese manufacturing which has proven an unshakable force against growing Western tariffs. Outside markets like the EU and North America, Chinese EVs have popularity in larger economies in South America including nations like Brazil, Chile and Argentina, as well as a loyal middle-class customer clientele in South East Asia and mainland China itself.

In Europe as well, the voting pattern of EU members shows that not everyone agrees with imposed tariffs, Nations like Luxembourg, Sweden, Portugal and Spain abstained from the vote to impose tariffs while Germany and Hungary voted outright against imposing tariffs on Chinese EVs. It should be noted that Germany has a strong relationship with China in the automotive sector, especially due to its reliance on Chinese materials and Volkswagen, a leading German car manufacturer having a huge shareholding from China. Equally, BYD ( a Chinese EV carmaker) is establishing a plant in Hungary, which would provide plenty of jobs to the Central European nation that is seeking to limit emigration to the West by its younger populace.

Western consumers are equally receptive to Chinese EVs due to their relatively cheaper prices. Norway, a non-EU member but a member of the EEA is a particularly friendly market for Chinese EVs as the Norwegian government seeks to transition towards green mobility which includes electric and hybrid vehicles.

Generally, Western attitudes over the past decade have been towards the transition to cleaner and smarter energy which has less toll on the environment. This has spurred on a whole industry of smart technologies and vehicles in particular in an effort to combat climate change. Majority of Western car manufacturers have taken on this task with the creation of hybrid vehicle options. However, as aforementioned, industrial capacity in the West pales in comparison to Chinese industrial might which has near quadrupled Western European Industrial Capacity.

The above-mentioned tariffs can thus be perceived as a creature of American trade conflicts with an emerging power in the East. China presents as a power which can spearhead the energy transition which has the potential to leave majority of the West behind in its wake. This is a product of both Chinese output as mentioned and a coherent Chinese government policy to promote Chinese industry to both its neighborhood in South East Asia and other industrialised high income states ranging from Australasia to the Americas.

American influenced sanctions therefore can be perceived as a means to stall the Chinese wave while building internal capacity to match Chinese output.

However, this does not seem to scupper Chinese innovation, which is growing stronger and finding ways to circumvent American and EU pressure. With BYD building plants in Mexico and Brazil, there is an effort to work around tariffs placed by Western actors. Equally, China filed a complaint with the WTO questioning the parameters by which the EU determined tariffs on Chinese EVs and questioning whether any transparency existed in setting said tariffs. Equally, in a circular circulated to EU members and Turkey, China seeks to query whether said subsidies are not discriminatory towards Chinese products which, according to vehicle reviewers, are produced to the same standards as Western vehicles. The Financial Times on 2nd March 2024 reported that Chinese EVs have been found to be more reliable than US and European EVs. Their charging times are often faster and display more durability. As evidenced by market preferences.

In such an environment, it is clear that Chinese manufacturers and the Chinese government are keeping themselves adaptable in the face of the West’s anxiety concerning Chinese innovation and industrial might. Western consumers are equally receptive to Chinese EVs, which underlines the futility of Western governments’ resistance to Chinese vehicles entering their markets.

In conclusion, it seems more than likely that this chapter of Chinese-Western industrial relations is not closed, as there are more than likely plenty of sub-plots unfolding on both sides of the aisle. China equally seems unfazed in the face of impediments from the West, choosing to push on with her objectives despite hurdles presented by Western governments. The next half of this decade will determine whether the above measures will yield much or, if the West is delaying the inevitable.

The writer is a Research Fellow at the Development Watch Center.

China’s Wang Yi Africa Visit: 2025 Will Be A Fruitful Year For Sino-Africa Relations

Posted on By Sino Uganda Research Centre

By Allawi Ssemanda

Dear Editor, last week, China’s top Diplomat Wang Yi completed his week-long Africa trip having visited four different African countries of Chad, the Republic of Congo, Namibia and Nigeria.

The visit which marked 140th visit from Chinese top leadership to the continent since the year 2007. It was also 35th year in a row Chinese Foreign Minister making Africa the first destination for his foreign where traditionally the visit covers 4-5 African countries every January of the year. By all measures, the tradition confirms that China puts great importance to its cooperation with Africa. It is also a testament that China’s diplomatic ties with Africa is guided by principles of amity, sincerity, mutual benefit, inclusiveness and real results as President Xi Jinping often states.

Wang Yi’s visit came just months after China upgraded bilateral relations between African countries with China to the level of strategic relations, with president Xi Jinping during 2024 Forum on China Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) announcing that the overall characterization of Africa-China relations be elevated to all-weather China-Africa community with a shared future for the new era.

If critically analyzed, Wang Yi, who doubles as a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, his visit is key in deepening practical cooperation between China and Africa in different sectors and promoting an in-depth development of China-Africa cooperation with real results and win-win for both sides. Indeed, President Xi Jinping observed in his 2013 FOCAC summit key note address in Durban, South Africa that; “the development of China-Africa ties can only be in the present continuous tense and never in the present perfect tense.”  A decade plus since Xi’s remarks, China continues to stand shoulder to shoulder and work with African countries for mutual benefits – a sign that Beijing is committed to her idea of building a community of shared future and prosperity for mankind in the new era.

For decades now, the trade between two sides have been growing and are projected to further grow in 2025. For example, in addition to being Africa’s largest trading partner for the last 15 years in a row, at the end of 2023, China’s trade volume with African countries reached USD 282.1 billion. At the end of 2024, this grew to USD 296 billion representing about 5% increasement, according to data by the General Administration of Customs of China.

With China’s Belt and Road Initiative which is making significant contribution in improving the continent’s infrastructure connectivity, zero tariff policy on African goods entering Chinese markets as announced by China, the figures of trade between two sides will likely grow further. Considering multiplier effects of such which include among others contributing to improved standards of living, one can safely argue that China-Africa cooperation in all ways is contributing to building a community of shared prosperity and shared future in the new era. This goes without saying that China’s initiatives such as Global Development Initiative, Global Security Initiative and Global Civilization Initiatives are also key in building the ideal world.

In this context, Wang Yi’s visit clearly shows China’s willingness to work with African counterparts in ensuring that the 10 partnership actions President Xi announced during the 2024 FOCAC summit meant to be implemented over a period of next three years are fast tracked. The 10 Partnership Actions include among others; mutual learning among civilization which will see sharing of governance experience, establishment of 25 China-Africa studies centers; the Partnership Action for trade and prosperity; the Partnership Action for industrial chain cooperation which will see the launch of an African SMEs empowerment program and  China supporting the continent to build 20 digital demonstration projects in Africa; the Partnership Action of connectivity with aim of supporting 30 infrastructure connectivity projects in Africa; and Partnership Action on health. Under health action, China will send 2,000 medical experts in Africa, launch 20 programs of health facilities and malaria treatment and encourage Chinese companies to invest in Africa’s pharmaceutical production.

Others include Partnership Action for development cooperation which will see implementation of 1,000 small and beautiful livelihood projects; Partnership Action for agriculture and livelihoods which will see increase in Chinese funding of agriculture on the continent; Partnership Action for green development; Partnership Action for people-to-people exchanges; and Partnership Action for common security.

If critically analyzed, all the 10 Partnership Actions will help the continent to address its challenges and most of its bottlenecks to development. For example, under the Partnership Action for Agriculture and livelihoods, China promised to provide Africa with 1 billion Chinese Yuan in emergency food assistance, support in building about 6,670 hectares of standardized agricultural demonstration, send agricultural experts to train their African counterparts and establish a China-Africa agricultural science and technology innovation alliance. This is in addition to implementing 500 programs meant to support and promote community welfare. More importantly, under the Partnership Action for agriculture, China’s aim is to promote two-way investments for new business by both Chinese and African companies with aim of retaining and adding value in goods produced on the continent and create at least one million jobs for the continent.

Aware that China believes in consultations other than enforcing her own ideas on her allies, one can argue that Wang Yi’s visit at a time when the two sides are readying themselves to embark on implementation of the projects under the said Partnership Actions, the visit was crucial for consultations and understanding of priorities for African countries where the partnership projects will be implemented. It is also a testament of China’s readiness and willingness to kick-start the implementation of the 10 partnership actions.

Taking the Partnership Action for common security as an example, during his Africa trip, Minister Yi was categorical that China will “firmly support Africans in addressing African issues in the African way,” stressing that “African people are the real masters of this continent.” Yi further expressed China’s stance against interfering in the Continent’s internal affairs in any form and instead showed Beijing’s willingness and readiness to support the continent so that African countries themselves can devise ways of addressing their concerns. It’s in this visit that wang announced USD 136 million to support the continent in addressing security issues, help in training of 6000 troops and 1,000 police officers across Africa. He also pledged China’s support to the continent in its interests including at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). “At the UNSC, China will always be in favor of Africa,” stressed wang Yi.

In conclusion, considering that China takes engagement and consultations with allies key in their development support; and, aware that China’s global initiatives such as Global Development Initiative, Global Civilization Initiative and Global Security Initiative and the Belt and Road Initiative have some convergence with African Union’s Agenda 2063, one can safely argue that 2025 will be a fruitful year for China-Africa cooperation. With Wang Yi’s just concluded visit, this assertion is arguably bankable especially that both sides are determined to strengthen their achievements and that Beijing has been clear that her relationship with Africa is guided by principles of amity, sincerity, mutual benefits and real results with aim of building a community of shared future for mankind in the new era.

The writer is a resident senior research fellow at the Development watch Centre.

Africa’s Position on China’s Global Initiative on AI Governance

Posted on By Sino Uganda Research Centre

By Musiime George

There is no more denying the fact that Artificial Intelligence is reshaping the world in more ways than we could have possibly imagined. For example, AI could detect cancer much earlier and with increased accuracy. Moreover, it is projected that by deploying AI, businesses will save up to $8Billion annually by 2026. Nonetheless, in the midst of these impressive achievements are concerns that Africa must take note of. As a continent that is not playing a significant role in shaping the conversation on AI, albeit the conversation being ongoing, Africa must work with partners to ensure that inclusivity and representation are prioritized as early as in the Development of AI models. Unless this happens, we might wake up one day to realize we did not do enough and by then, it will be too late-as put in 2023 by OpenAI CEO, Sam Altman “If the technology goes wrong, it can go quite wrong.”

While this conversation takes shape, there are two prominent perspectives that standout in relation to Africa; 1) how the continent might or must reposition itself to benefit from the AI revolution on one hand, and 2) the need to build effective AI governance on the other. The World Bank drills deeper, talking about fostering equitable access to AI, and aligning the discussion around AI with sustainable Development Goals. Whereas both perspectives are essential, this essay contends that Africa must also work to ensure that inclusion and representation particularly in the development stages of AI are prioritized.

As we speak, the United States and China standout as de facto leaders in the global AI revolution. However, some commentators speculate that the competition between the two could follow the same trend as the cold war era arms race between the United states and the Soviet Union. To recap, this race resulted into unprecedented proliferation of nuclear weapons with the two great powers creating ever more destructive capabilities. On the contrary, many countries did not develop nuclear capabilities at the same pace or at all which made the nuclear threat even more profound. In the same way, the current trend in AI risks creating a similar scenario, especially in the absence of effective AI governance frameworks. For example, Trump era Secretary of Defense, Mark Esper once pointed out that, “…which ever nation harnesses AI will have a decisive advantage on the battlefield for many years.”  This goes to show how nations might deploy AI in the absence of such frameworks, ways that might jaundice efforts to build a peaceful, fairer and equitable world.

Experts who have been bold to express their concerns about AI have highlighted the emphasis placed on “AI for good” Vis-a-Vis Ethics of AI in the global conversation on Artificial Intelligence. In fact, it is easy to come to the consensus that, AI might not have a problem, but rather how we use it and where we use it. Moreover, one area often cited as a source of potential risk is, that of training data. The key concern here has been, most of these models have been implemented prior to the establishment of any frameworks for AI governance. Thus the question becomes what is the quality of training data used? And how well is Africa represented in these datasets?  With almost all of the training datasets coming from the global north, there is a significant risk of reinforcing existing stereotypes, and power dynamics which have for a long time held Africa at a disadvantage. Moreover, in an age where nearly 60% of online content is produced by AI, subsequent improvement of AI capabilities could only exacerbate this dynamic since it is based on already biased input.

The risk of accelerated bias: Different Tech enthusiasts and experts have on numerous occasions highlighted the possibility of AI creating abundance on the bright side. Nonetheless, there have been warnings from others, regarding the risk of accelerated bias, particularly in cases where the initial training data was prejudiced or not representative. Thus, the Cinderella issue in the AI conversation is that of representation, and quality of training data. Indeed, algorithmic biases directly affect both fairness and trust, jeopardizing any benefits presented by AI. Given the historical injustices and cultural sensitivities on one hand, and the bulk of training data coming from the global north on the other, AI models could aid in perpetuating historical injustices, stereotypes, thus undermining uptake and subsequent access to the benefits of AI technology on the continent. This is one particular reason why Africa needs to rise to the occasion and play its due role in this conversation.

As China and Africa made renewed commitments to jointly building an all-weather China Africa Community with a shared future for the new era, both partners agreed to work together in order to seize the historic opportunity of the new round of technological revolution. This commitment made at the 2024 FoCAC summit in Beijing aligns well with the need to address the inclusion and representation in the development of AI. The effort will seek to foster an inclusive, fair, just and nondiscriminatory environment for the development of science and technology. More so, in the first steps, Africa overwhelmingly welcomed China’s Global Initiatives on; AI governance and Data security. The initiatives are a step in the right direction in as far as promoting the rights of Africa in the global governance of AI are concerned. Therefore, working with China, Africa can enhance not just its role but also representation in novel AI models; from Large Language Models to Generative AI Models and everything in between.

In conclusion, as the universal application of Artificial Intelligence is cascading around the world, Africa can position itself to reap the enormous benefits presented by this revolution. Faced with an absence of AI governance frameworks in most countries, and the risk of accelerated biases, Africa must harness positive partnerships in order to counteract the perpetuation of old stereotypes, injustices, underrepresentation while enhancing fairness and inclusion as inroads to the positive benefits of Artificial Intelligence. In addition, the partnership with  China could be a strong advocacy voice for responsible and ethical AI in order to minimize associated security threats and the concentration of power thus buttressing global order and peace in the age of AI.

The author is a research fellow at the Development Watch Centre.

 

China’s Wang Yi’s Africa Visit Shows Her Value

Posted on By Sino Uganda Research Centre

By Joshua Kingdom

“Africa should be a big stage for international cooperation, not an arena for major-force rivalry”. These were the words of then Chinese Foreign Minister (FM) Qin Gang speaking to the press in Ethiopia while on his Africa visit in January 2023. Thereafter, he would fly to Angola, Gabon, Benin, and finally Egypt. This sort of thing happens at every beginning of year in a long standing tradition of demonstrating an enduring commitment to African affairs by The Chinese Communist party (CCP). For 2025, the current FM, Wang Yi concluded the year’s version of the tour in Nigeria on Thursday last week.

There is a lot that the minister’s journey achieved on its own, including the fact that his meeting with President Denis Sassou Nguesso of the Republic of the Congo re-echoed China’s readiness to start on the implementation of her promises at last year’s Forum on China-Africa Cooperation as well as how the liaison with Chad fills a gap that the recent crisis between the country and her former colonizer had caused. For our purposes here however, we will instead focus on how it is that the custom of Chinese foreign ministers travelling to this part of the world annually is strong evidence for how much their government cherishes it.

In doing so, I hope to provide a counter-perspective to that which one often hears from the West when its media paints China’s motives in relating with Africa as opportunistic through and through. As you read on, please keep at the back of your mind the fact that these cries have somehow become louder at a time when the potential of the AU states begins to vividly show– it is estimated for instance, that we will spend as much as $16 trillion in consumption and business yearly by 2050.

The shift in partnership preference by African leaders from West to East is explainable in part by the fact that Beijing has treated them with dignity. While President Hu Jintao hosted the first China-Africa Summit in 2006 thus, it took almost a decade before the United States thought that organizing an equivalent event was worth the bother. No example brings out this point better however, than the FMs’ engagements. I mean, the practice has been going for thirty-five years now. Surely, everyone would agree that the state of geopolitics has changed so much from 1990 that China cannot have been lying low all this while waiting for when the moment is right. Add to this the fact that FMs are often high ranking state officials such that their involvement in any duty is a mark of the significance that their party attaches to it and you see where this is going. Indeed, Wang Yi presently serves on the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party.

Moreover, China has made gains from the China-Africa FM trips as much as Africa has. Seeing the deliberate effort that the CCP leadership has invested through this initiative, other global powers are beginning to send more of their top politicians on the continent with competing offers. In 2023 alone hence, United States Vice President Kamala Harris and Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited five African nations between themselves. And in December last year, President Biden made his way to Angola. Significantly, the latter country has a lot to thank China for since western powers had mostly abandoned it during the immediate aftermath of the disastrous war that wrecked it at the turn of the century.

Knowing that there is no place in which actions speak louder than words than in foreign relations then, the time that Chinese FMs spend on the continent every beginning of year tells us all that we need to know about their homeland’s view of Africa. Countries in the Northern hemisphere will have to up the game before earning the right to convince Africans otherwise.

The writer is a lawyer and research fellow at the Development Watch Centre.

WHERE THE WEST AND CHINA HAVE LED US: COUNTING GAINS AND LOSSES

Posted on By Sino Uganda Research Centre

By SALIM ABILA ASUMAN

The year 2024 has come to an end, and we find ourselves in that familiar beginning of a new year moment where we look back at the past year’s events much like flipping through an annual financial report.

But, instead of profit margins and balance sheets, we are trying to reflect on the actions, decisions, and strategies that shaped the global landscape last year.

If there is that one thing that dominated the headlines the last year, it’s the dynamic duo of the West and China.

Just like an annual report provides clarity on where an establishment stands, it is time for Uganda and Africa at large to assess where the West and China have led us and what the next chapter holds.

As Uganda and definitely much of Africa, continues to play host to foreign powers, it’s time to take stock. Who’s winning? Who’s losing? And more importantly whether there has been a move towards tangible economic progress?

This article takes a final glance at 2024 as we begin 2025, it delves into the profound impact of their co-operations and partnerships in Africa, while examining the moves that defined 2024. Buckle up as we dive into last year’s most riveting global showdown.

In the recent years the relationship between China and Africa has yielded substantial returns across key sectors transforming infrastructure, boosting trade advancing industrialization, and driving economic growth.

As we review the results, its clear that the investments and collaborations are setting Uganda and the broader continent on a path to long term prosperity. Below is the assessment of the gains in tangible terms, measuring the impact of this partnership on Uganda’s development.

Kampala-Entebbe Expressway: The completion of the USD 1.3 billion Expressway, has transformed Uganda’s transport landscape. This 51-kilometers road now connects Uganda’s capital with its international airport, reducing travel time by 30 minutes and enhancing trade and tourism.

Karuma Hydroelectric Power Plant: with an investment of USD 1.7 billion, this project is set to add 600 MW of electricity to Uganda’s grid, addressing the country’s energy deficit and supporting industrial growth.

These infrastructure projects have reduced logistical costs and improved regional connectivity, contributing to a 3.5 percent increase in GDP growth. Uganda’s ranking in the world bank’s logistics performance index has improved boosting investors’ confidence.

Uganda’s trade with China has also reached USD 2.7 billion, with exports valued at USD 800 Million. Major exports included; coffee, minerals, while imports from China included machinery and electronics, accounted for USD 1.9 billion.

About USD 120 Million has also been invested by China in Education and Skills Development. Over 2,000 Ugandans have received scholarships to study in China, with 400 students graduating in fields such as engineering, energy, and agriculture.

These educational investments have equipped Uganda’s youth with technical skills, reducing unemployment rates in several sectors and as a result there has been a reduction in national unemployment.

It would be a mischief if China’s investment in Uganda’s Oil and Gas sector is ignored. China National Offshore Oil Corporation’s (CNOOC) has so far invested about USD 1.4 billion in Uganda’s oil sector.

Uganda’s economic future, in many ways, is now paved by Chinese concrete, and while it sounds like a fairy tale of infrastructure, this is the undeniable fact.

On the other side there is a symphony of good intentions and familiar missed opportunities. Let’s talk about the west, the United States, the European Union and their assorted agencies have spent decades agitating about democracy, good governance, and human rights. They have managed to tick off a few boxes in Uganda, funding healthcare programs, agricultural initiatives, and governance reforms.

Take USAID’s efforts in Uganda, sure, there has been progress in health and food security, but what about jobs? What about the kind of industrialization that could make Uganda self-sufficient, and not just reliant on aid? The West’s model often focuses on alleviating the symptoms of poverty without addressing the root causes.

Western aid flows in like a river generous and well-meaning but its often not connected to the kind of long-term economic investment that could truly propel Uganda into the future.

In addition, while western companies have been having a foothold in Uganda and Africa, they have not been enthusiastic in investing in local enterprises to aid Uganda build its own industries.

Not only has the West ignored the real engine of economic growth, but they have also missed a vast opportunity by not embracing more directly the natural resources that Africa possesses. While China was building railways, the West was stalled in pushing environmental policies that clash with Africa’s needs to extract and exploit their resources for growth.

China, on the other hand, has no qualms: oil, coal, and gas are all part of their development strategy. To many nations on the continent with natural resources, the West’s refusal to engage with Africa’s resources sector in favor of a more ‘environmentally responsible approach’ is a luxury Africa simply cannot afford.

So, what do we have at the end of 2024? If you are Uganda, you have new roads, shiny power plants, and an expanding, if slightly precarious, economic footprint on the map.

However, the truth is that, the future of Africa will be determined by a tightrope balancing between the two forces. China offers infrastructure and trade, while the West offers ideals and humanitarian aid. But the real question is, Can Uganda-can Africa-find a way to leverage these investments for long-term, self-sustaining growth? Or will it continue to stand in the shadows of foreign powers, and always counting the gains and losses on a balance sheet that never seems to add up? Only time will tell. Though the answer is right in front of us.

The writer is a research fellow at the Sino-Uganda Research Centre

Smart Urban Planning: Benchmarking China to Solve Kampala’s Traffic Crisis

Posted on By Sino Uganda Research Centre

By Nnanda Kizito Sseruwagi

It is estimated that 64% of Uganda’s GDP and 75% of total national revenue collection comes from the Kampala Metropolitan area. To maintain and increase this level of productivity, Kampala needs to have a smooth flow of traffic on good roads. As factors currently stand, millions of the country’s most productive population segment lose productive hours of work seated in deadlock traffic in Kampala’s congested, pot-holed, narrow roads.  On average, about 5-6 hours are wasted daily on the road by workers who are bogged down in the morning and evening when they are going to or coming from work. This is even besides counting the physical and mental health costs urban traffic congestion has on people daily.

Some analyses have concluded that Kampala’s problem is not about a lack of financial resources to build the roads, but one of bureaucratic procurement procedures. It is established that in 2016, Uganda received $300 million from African Development Bank to repair and/or reconstruct some of the major roads in Kampala. This was followed by the award of tenders and contracts by Kampala Capital City Authority (KCCA) in 2020. Those who lost in the awarding process petitioned the PPDA and other agencies to bog down the commencement of works because of the agents involved in the bidding chain who are always calculating for cuts off of the awards. Almost five years later, no serious works have commenced. The little patchwork done to fill a few potholes and clean drainages has been done by the Special Forces Command (SFC) under the direct intervention of Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba. The deleterious effect of these delays is multiplied into not just productivity lost in traffic congestion but also in hefty interests that the government has to keep paying on money it has not even utilised.

My concern is not even about redoing the road network in the entire Kampala Metropolitan Area which definitely must be done at some time if Kampala is to be rescued from being a large slum. I’m concerned rather with making the city workable as is currently – to cut down the traffic on our roads at an affordable cost.

I believe this is possible because of the following reasons.

Kampala traffic does not normally involve long lines of cars congested along roads. Often, you find that the traffic is intense in an area spanning about eight kilometres. Other parts of the roads are normally freely flowing with few cars.

This implies that congestion happens at intersections or what may be called “choke points.” These are points where we have roundabouts such as Wandegeya, Jinja road traffic lights area, Mulago, Bwaise, Busega, Lubigi and other such places. Other choke points are sections where more than two roads meet.

If there was a smooth flow of traffic at these choke points, cars would never be congested for hours on most of Kampala’s roads, even if they remained in their current state of shambolic narrowness.

With a population of 1.4 billion people, and hundreds of millions of people in individual provincial cities, China is a good country to benchmark with in terms of dealing with deadly traffic. The country innovatively improved its traffic problem and now enjoys high productivity from its citizens.

Let us look at China’s most reasonable and sustainable strategies which enabled it to control traffic congestion having undertaken many ineffective measures from which it improved.

China was notorious for deadly urban traffic congestion in cities such as Beijing, Guangzhou, Shangai and Shenzen.

Like Kampala, China’s cities faced congestion especially at intersections of wider roads, causing excessively long waiting hours at red lights, and general traffic disorder at intersections. This was a major cause of inconvenience.

This, I think, is Kampala’s major traffic problem today, and China offers lessons on overcoming it affordably.

China introduced policies to improve the service level of intersections. This involved building flyovers and pedestrian overpasses, and enhancing the efficiency of road networks and places with high volumes of cars. The goal was to increase the space supply of motor vehicles and expand the capacity of road traffic at choke points to avoid standstill congestion.

Given the fact that Kampala is a small city, with few major roundabouts and intersections, it is possible to invest our meagre resources to concentrate on dissolving traffic at such critical intersections such as Wandegeya traffic lights, Mulago, Busega, Jinja road and other such areas. This would include building pedestrian overwalks like the one at the former clock tower. These would consume pedestrian traffic smoothly and safely, leaving roads for motorists.

The boda boda cyclists would also have to be given special lanes at the points of intersection or be redirected to other roads that bypass the choke point areas. With that, cars would never have to stop at traffic lights and cause hours of congestion on a daily.

Following years of research, China established that the “sparse block collocation” policy is the most sustainable and fundamental congestion control measure. This policy involved the design of walkable streets and pedestrian scale blocks to enhance pedestrian traffic; incorporating pedestrian safety and convenience requirements into architectural design; reducing the demand for motor vehicles by creating bicycle-friendly road networks; increasing the use of public transport by building public transport-oriented streets and communities; advocating mixed land-use patterns to disperse public travel destinations; and establishing public green spaces and services within walking distance of each other. The benefits of instituting this policy were several, including achieving more balanced employment and housing for citizens, shortening commuting distances, and reducing traffic demand in cities. This could be a good policy to benchmark on in future when Uganda has the resources to redesign the greater Kampala area completely, which we must do at some point!

The writer is a senior research fellow at the Development Watch Center.

Posted on By Sino Uganda Research Centre

By Alan Collins Mpewo

Eras come to end. Sometimes not completely, but somehow on a scale of extents, they end. History is littered with a plethora of the same. Contextualize historical Babylon, Rome, Ottoman, Zulu, even close to the great lakes region, Bunyoro Kitara empire. USSR! They surely have timelines. And there are tales to what led to the collapse in time, with ‘some’ emerging eras picking lessons. At the apex of the pile of the era’s supremacy sits pride. Not ordinarily for pride, but the never-ending pride that brings with it immense sense of immortality. And so the scribes of history keep registering new entrants as they walk on the ruins of those they take after.

The United States of America is the present era, and although many might disagree, it surely is. Until the peak of Cold War, the US made its grand entry into laying the final layer to its foundation of an era that has lived through time to this very day. But eras do not usually end on mere wishes of a day’s collapse, the events contributing a fabric to the entire veil of collapse take distinct timelines and usually a considerable time. Could it be such a point in time to witness another grand fall? China by the start of the Cold War, to many that were distracted by the unfolding of the ‘silent’ war was just like many other economies of the time ‘trying to figure it out’, even though some critics and historians safely state that the trajectory to China’s present global image had quite started a little earlier than as when the cold war started.

During President Donald Trump’s first term, the world was not surprised that the US imposed tariffs on China ranging distinctively averagely between 10% to 25%. In fact, there was a threat that with the continuous events of the day, there was possibility that the tariffs would grow to over 60% a state of affairs that China and a couple of other states vehemently disagreed with. But to the US administration of the day, it was just another typical US response to one of its present adversaries. President Joe Biden’s administration picked from what the Republicans had started and until the recent second return of President Trump into the White House for his final term as President, more escalation towards more tariffs has been intimated. What awaits is concreting of the sentiments when he is sworn in on 20th January, 2025.

But who loses? Safe it is to state that China is the most measurable fair competitor of the US on quite a number of metrics vis-à-vis the public perception of Russia as worthy enough. Of all measure points, outstanding most is the ‘economy’. China has maintained a consistent economic growth rate, inspire of the shortfalls caused by COVID-19 which disruption only slowed the country’s steady growth, but even then, the growth did not remain static.

Which its growing foreign influence and policies among others wrapped in international export of drivers of the economy, some economists and foreign relations experts predict that a clearer match of the world’s two leading economies might be realized as fast as early 2035. Not so many years from today. The US exports as much into the China market as much as the US relies on China’s labour that informed base establishments by numerous US companies on China mainland to ease its expense burdens while maximizing profits. The US export farmers for example by the end of 2024 showcased fear arising from President Trump’s statements that a projection of about 3.1$ Billion is on the verge of being lost with introduction of new tariffs.

President Xi’s government has maintained its stance on the effect of such tariffs, as undermining global commerce but President Trump maintains his confidence albeit serious warnings of the implications. Interestingly, in a bid to make America great again, America will suffer more. A sharp spike in goods costs is something that cannot be overemphasized. It is expected, interestingly at a time of growing global resentment for US foreign policy perpetuated in the past and those incoming. China is not the major US problem. US rather, is US’s major problem.

As Trump takes leadership, many members of the African Union stand on the hill that the grant of two seats (rotational) to the UN Security Council, and yet cannot vote on resolutions there, although proposal introduced by the US is not enough but an act of alleged continuous US bullying. But China that disagrees with such crumbing comes out as the ‘enemy’ to the US.

Turkey a NATO member has since showcased interest in joining BRICS. Saudi Arabia already did. And more BRICS issues. The Taiwan unsolved question and the scramble for more NATO membership and its consequences. A tale of eras. The world has over and over proved to be an undeniable global community whose dictates are fundamental mutual respect relations. It begs to witness the end to the pipeline of the tariffs confidence, but debatable, the world international commerce trends do not stand in the US interests especially when juxtaposed with US’s aspirations to continuously keep leading as the world’s biggest economy. It is a losing game.

The writer is a Senior Research Fellow at the Development Watch Center.