Improved Technology Is Vital in Answering Uganda and Africa’s Energy  Dilemma

By Arthur Atuha

The World Bank estimates that one billion people – of which a big fraction is in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia – have no access to electricity! Relatedly, the African Development Bank (ADB)  explains that Sub-Saharan Africa cannot realise its development targets with current shortage of electricity stressing that the region needs USD 130-170 billion annually if it is to address its power challenges. Some experts argue that this presents a major barrier to social economic transformation touching major development indicators like health, education, poverty reduction, food production, gender equality, livelihoods among others.

Indeed, President Yoweri Museveni has often explained that “lack of infrastructure such as electricity” can impede development aspirations by among others causing high cost of doing business stating that lack of energy is one of major bottlenecks the continent is grappling with. Uganda’s Vision 2040’s whose aim is “A transformed Ugandan Society from a Peasant to a Modern and Prosperous Country within 30 years” undercores the importance of energy in any country’s social-economic development. The potential demand is seemingly growing with stretches from agriculture, manufacturing and domestic consumption. Digital infrastructure and innovation in the Power sector are meant to foster entrepreneurship but how do we achieve this at the earliest times anyway?

With several sources of power such as Nuclear, thermal, biomass, solar and hydro, supply is ceasing to be a challenge for Uganda’s dream but rather demand triggered in-terms of load growth, electricity access and quality of service mapped against the cost of electricity. The Grid development plan (2018-2040) indicates growth in sales by UETCL of 9% partly due to exportation of electricity to neighboring countries like Kenya. Nonetheless, the demand side in Uganda has continued to portray potential in the next future thus the need to match it to supply.

Global energy targets have also continued to be enforced especially through donations, grants and Foreign Domestic Investments (FDIs) calling for compliance to conditions such as affordable and clean energy which is number 7 priority of United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (SDG 7) and number SDG number 13 – climate action with notable environmental regulations especially those relating to green energy and reduction of carbon emissions for example the use of electric vehicles that are eco-friendly. This has fronted Technology as a feasible solution to solve power issues globally like never before for which Uganda should not be indifferent.

China is already playing a key role especially in supporting energy infrastructure development especially in Africa and the entire global south. China’s Belt and Road initiative (BRI) is one of main vehicles Beijing has been using to fund and support energy infrastructure development including Uganda’s Karuma and Isimba hydropower stations. Also, through Chinese State-Owned firms, Beijing’s role in ensuring global transformation of the power sector is very visible and commendable. China Southern Power Grid (CSG) , a state-owned enterprise that operates in China’s five provinces including Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, Guizhou, and Hainan has demonstrated digital AI plus power systems (Green) in Hainan province with low carbon development at 28% energy usage in China. With these targets of sustainability, renewables are becoming irreplaceable thus the need to attract an interdisciplinary approach of integration.

With demand, system stability is seen to be the biggest challenge however with appropriate planning parameters and investment in climate friendly portfolios and products, these can guarantee reliable and resilient power systems, for example replacing generators and inverters with converters.

Uganda’s electricity problems are largely associated with accessibility, reliability and energy losses some of which are underpinned to vandalism. Investment in digital infrastructure such as drones that have an AI inbuilt mechanism can be used for smart monitoring of both transmission and distribution network lines especially in the highly risk areas like the North-eastern part of Uganda (Karamoja region) that is prone to insecurity thus threatening the safety of staff operators.

The path of investment in Technology has seen CSG become a performance benchmark in China with its power reliability hitting nearly 100%, accessibility stands at 100% with sufficient energy storage to beat outages, cost of power has dropped by 60% in the past decade due to the pricing mechanism that is market established among the 38 OECD countries. This has stimulated economic growth and social benefits including improved competitiveness with China’s scale increasing from 11 trillion yuan in 2012 to over 50 trillion yuan in 2022.  It is imperative to associate such achievements to be driven by market demand, technological innovation and government support.

On 9th December 2024, CSG launched the implementation of a new power system to achieve cleanliness and low carbon emissions of power supply by 2035. This is to have a composition of Wind PV, hydro, nuclear and hydrogen as renewables are becoming a more reliable substitute for fossil fuels. Safety and sufficiency being pre-requisites, development is meant to advance in-tandem to enhance reliability with

They built a back-up power supply coordinating the large power grids to the distributed smart grids guaranteeing a stable electricity system operation. Cost effectiveness and efficiency being key, the electricity tariff will further decline due to the improved electricity market mechanism increasing terminal energy consumption to 42% by 2035. This demonstrates synergy between supply and demand with foundations from flexibility and intelligence thus optimizing source grid integration. If the different energy sector players in Uganda (ERA, UEGCL, UETCL, UEDCL) through the ministry of Energy explored such opportunities of technology advancements, Uganda could become among the first developing countries to witness the benefits of the new power supply system gradually by 2035. With UMEME out, maybe Uganda and Africa in general should  borrow a leaf from China’s CSG. The company has already helped a number of countries such as Vietnam, Chile, Peru, Laos and Luxenberg among others to significantly improve their power supply by significantly reducing power losses in process of distribution among others through use of advanced technology.

The writer is a Research Fellow at the Development watch Centre.

Framing Foreign Employees: Tales of Chinese Workers at Karuma Hydropower Project

By Allawi Ssemanda

Figures from the Word Bank indicate that approximately, one billion people from Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia have no access to electricity. This is a huge barrier to socio-economic transformation of world’s significant population and has both direct and indirect effects on development efforts like slowing expansion of development indicators such as health, poverty reduction programs, education, food security among others.

Despite significant progress in growing the numbers of people with access to electricity, it is still hard for developing countries to meet the 7th Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) of all having access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy by 2030.

The government of Uganda has been working hard to increase electricity production capacity to increase its accessibility countrywide. Through EXIM bank of China, Chinese government offered concessional loan to fund 85% cost of the project, while Uganda government is meeting the remaining 15%.  A Chinese firm SinoHydro Cooperation was contracted to undertake the project which is Uganda’s biggest hydropower plant and possibly, the 14th largest hydropower dam in the world.

The dam will produce 600MW which will push the country’s hydropower generation to 1,868 MW. The government hopes this will help the country to increase power accessibility countrywide reduce power tariffs in the long run.

Uganda’s vision 2040 which aims to make “a Transformed Ugandan Society from a Peasant to a Modern and Prosperous Country within 30 years” lists increased generation of affordable power as a magic bullet for the country’s socio-economic take off. To achieve this, Uganda must increase its electricity per capita consumption from the current 215 kWh to at least 3,668 kWh. This to happen, we must raise our power generation capacity to at least 41,738MW and increase access to national grid to at least 80%!

As Bent Flyvbjerg, a Danish professor at Harvard University taught us; “Infrastructure is the great space shrinker, and power, wealth and status increasingly belong to those who know how to shrink space,…” Put differently, Uganda to realise her 2040 vision, we must shrink electricity deficits. This will among others increase multiplier effects associated with increased access to power.

For this to happen, as a country, we must not aim at small and individualistic gains but rather aim at those that benefit us as a country.  We must not kill a hen to save an egg. This means resisting all acts that may delay or sabotage infrastructural developmental projects.  For instance, the completion of Karuma Hydropower project partly delayed because of sabotage when unknown individuals vandalised and collapsed 5 transmission towers on the Karuma-Kawanda 400KV transmission line.

Last year, I and a team of researchers from the Development Watch Centre went to Kiryandongo district specifically to get first-hand information and understand how the Karuma hydropower project was impacting the host communities.

We interviewd 91 people who included residents and leaders of Karuma town council and neighbouring sub countries, managers and emplyees of the project. These included 64 men and 27 women. Among the 27 women, some were those some media outlets identified as victims. While interviewing alleged victims, who media reported to have claimed to have children fathered by Chinese workers, one Lydia Atim (she gave consent to quote her) from Gulu refuted the claims stressing the father of her child was a Pakistan. “No, the father of my child is not a Chinese. He is a Pakistani,” Lydia Atim affirmed.

The findings reached at after several interviews revealed striking findings including ground truthed claims of blackmail by some local politicians who some community members and politicians argue are using the “victims” of the project for both political and monetary gains.

Asked why they cite Chinese employees as responsible including those who know that afthers of their children are not Chinese, Washington Ochaya, the area district councillor noted; “for us, all foreign workers in this area who are not black in colour are Chinese because they are the majority.” He stressed that as local leaders, in total they had “registred only five ladies who claimed to have had children with foreign workers.” If anaysed, in this case Chinese employees can easily be accused even when it is clear they are not personally responsible.

Desipte what he called a few challenges, Ochaya who was our contact person during the study credited the project stressing; “before this project, Karuma was a small town with no opportunities. With the project kicking off, the area has registered significant growth in all aspects that today, we have a Town Council and we are still growing.” “Land used to be cheap here, but with this project, land prices skyrocketed and social services in the area improved. Those Chinese also helped us to have access to clean water by constructing a water tap at Karuma primary school which is a source of clean water for entire community,” emphasised Ochaya.

While one may not conclude that accusing foreign workers of abandoning their alleged fathered children is a common conspiracy against Chinese, some local leaders think that some politicians are manipulating mothers who have children with project’s foreign employees to say it’s Chinese who are responsible. In our interview with Mr. Oryem Joseph Lilly, the chairperson LC 1 Karuma cell, he argued that some local politicians use local women with children fathered by foreign workers as a campaign tool so that they can be seen as having fought for what they present as vulnerable people. Oryem emphasises that some politicians are manipulating those women hopping they would get compensated and share their money claiming they helped them. Describing the act as corruption, Oryem stressed “corrupt politicians are using the project for selfish interests. They are so determined that some are willing to blackmail the project, inflate victims’ list and list of those who lost land hopping they can gain monetarily from this,” Oryem emphasised. Here, one can conclude that some politicians in the area are willing to kill a hen to save an egg!

In this case, a hen is framing and blackmailing huge infrastructural projects like Karuma hydropower project with its immense opportunities to local communities. The egg saved is someone individually benefiting as a result of blackmail or framing the project that would otherwise benefit entire society but the individual consciously or otherwise frames and blackmail it for personal gains which may in the long run affect the entire project and the host community who would otherwise benefit from such projects.

To avoid such blanket claims, government especially the ministry of energy should interest themselves in this matter and where a person or local politician claims of having knowledge of existence of so-called “many abandoned children” left behind by foreign workers, they should be tasked to help authorities locate alleged victims. Otherwise, other than the possibility of government or the contractor spending much money compensating such non-existent victims on long lists created for political and other ulterior motives, such unsubstantiated claims have potential to cause unnecessary projects delays.  Also, as a country, we risk being seen as hostile to our development partners because of selfish individuals who thrive on blackmail.

Allawi Ssemanda is a Senior Research Fellow at the Development Watch Centre.